Bloomberg New Energy Finance recently published a report on Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018, which contains forecasts for the distribution of electric vehicles. An interesting part of the report is the forecast for the use of oil by mankind in the years of complete victory of electric motors over internal combustion engines.
According to BNEF, electric vehicles need 15 years to become more accessible than cars with internal combustion engines. At the same time, by 2020 electric buses will completely dominate the public transport. Sales of electric vehicles in 2018 should exceed 1.6 million copies. In 2014, their sales were measured in hundreds of thousands.
So it is, we can observe a significant increase in sales of electric vehicles, which is associated with reductions in the cost of battery production and government support. The third important factor was China. This country introduces restrictions on the purchase of cars with gasoline and diesel engines. It is assumed that by 2025 half of the market of electric vehicles will be in China.
The number of offered models from automakers is also growing. At the end of 2017, 155 models were offered. By 2022, 289 available models of electric vehicles are expected. All this should result in 11 million units sold by 2025, 30 million by 2030 and 60 million by 2040. In total, about 559 million electric vehicles will travel along roads by 2040.
Of course, such a growth in the market of electric vehicles can not but affect the use of oil in the future. BNEF believes that by 2040 high oil prices will come to an end, and its use will be reduced to 7.3 million barrels per day. Demand will be huge in 10 years and in 20 years, but its destruction is inevitable.