When in 2015 the famous failed Paris Agreement signed, which presupposes the regulation of emissions into the atmosphere, scientists established two critical parameters for assessing its implementation. The first is to achieve an increase in the average global temperature by 2100 by no more than 2 ° above the pre-industrial level. Above + 2 ° means an imminent catastrophe, so in fact people should try to keep the temperature rise much lower, only 1.5 °. But in reality we do not have that much time.
All that people need to do is simply to reduce emissions to the atmosphere everywhere, but we can not take and shut down factories and TPPs without crashing the economy. Countries are developing and implementing plans for a phased transition to renewable sources, and scientists assess the effectiveness of these initiatives on a global scale. With a rough estimate, there are only four scenarios for the development of the situation, they all establish a point of no return, after which the fuss will become useless and the planet will precisely overheat above the risk mark.
The first scenario is pessimistic, reducing emissions with parallel commissioning of the “green energy” will not exceed 2% per year on a planetary scale. If so, then we will not be able to keep the temperature rise by + 1.5 ° to 2100th. But if suddenly all countries of the world in a single impulse provide a 5% reduction in emissions, the point of no return is shifted to 2027. The chance is scanty, but it's there.
The third scenario is a 2% reduction in emissions, but agreement on the final temperature increase of 2 °. On it the point of no return will be for 2035 year. And if we take the extreme scenario, then with a 5% reduction in emissions and a border of +2 °, we have time until 2045 to influence the climate. The authors of the calculations specify that their accuracy is not more than 67%, plus the influence of technologies for removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere should be taken into account if a major power decides to take this seriously. The main goal of all this modeling is stated directly: frighten politicians and force them to do something to save humanity from the anger of the planet.js.src = “&version=v2.8”; 'script', 'facebook-jssdk'));